Fundamentals20 August 20265 min read

How to read a return figure without being misled

Per month or per year? Before or after fees? Before or after inflation? The same investment can honestly be quoted four very different ways.

A return figure on its own means almost nothing. The same investment can honestly be described in several very different-sounding ways, and the flattering version is the one you will be shown.


Per month or per year?

"10% returns" sounds reasonable. Ten per cent per month is roughly 214% a year compounded — which is not a reasonable investment return, it is a warning sign.

Always convert to annual before you react. A monthly figure quoted without the word "monthly" doing much work is doing a job.


Gross or net of fees?

A gross return is what the assets did. A net return is what reached you. The gap is the fees, and it compounds against you for as long as you hold.

Ask for the number after all costs. If it takes more than one exchange to get it, that is information.


Nominal or real?

Nominal is the headline. Real is nominal minus inflation — what your money can actually buy afterwards.

A 15% return against 20% inflation is a loss of about 5% in real terms, however good the headline looks. In an inflationary economy this is the widest gap between how a number feels and what it does.


Annualised or cumulative?

"120% returns" might mean 120% in a year, or 120% over eight years — roughly 10% a year, an entirely different proposition. The phrase "since inception" is doing a great deal of work wherever it appears.


Past or projected?

Past returns are facts about a period that has ended. Projected returns are assumptions in a spreadsheet, chosen by someone with a preference about the answer.

Both are worth seeing. Only one is evidence.

Five questions for any number you are shown: over what period, after what costs, before or after inflation, actual or projected, and what was the worst stretch along the way. The last one is never volunteered.


Do this today

Take the most recent return figure you have been shown — there is usually one — and run all five questions against it. Most numbers do not survive the exercise, and knowing which ones do is most of what protects you.

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