For about three years, "the Dangote refinery IPO" has been one of those things people talk about but never see. Target dates came and went. 2024. Then 2025. Then "sometime in 2026."

This time it looks real.

On 4 September 2026, Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission approved the offer. The numbers are now on paper: 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each, which would raise roughly ₦2.15 trillion. Aliko Dangote told investors in Botswana on 3 September that the offer would open within the next ten to twelve days, and reports point to the order book opening around 14 September 2026 on the Nigerian Exchange.

So the question stops being whether it will happen and becomes whether you should take part.

This letter walks through what you would actually be buying, what is genuinely impressive about it, what is genuinely worrying, and how to take part if you decide to. It is not advice to buy or sell. I am not a licensed financial adviser, and nobody should be making this decision off a newsletter.

WHAT YOU WOULD BE BUYING

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki is the biggest single-train refinery in the world. It was built for 650,000 barrels a day, and after maintenance work in February 2026 its crude distillation capacity was lifted to 700,000 barrels a day. That is not a company claim. The US Energy Information Administration reported it in August 2026, using shipping data from Vortexa.

The same data shows how much has changed. In 2023, Nigeria shipped an average of 79,000 barrels a day of petroleum products. By the second quarter of 2026, that figure was 561,000 barrels a day. Imports went the other way: down from nearly 400,000 barrels a day in 2023 to under 130,000.

Nigeria's regulator, NMDPRA, says the refinery was supplying more than 90 per cent of the country's petrol by February 2026.

That is a real industrial achievement, and it is worth saying plainly before we get to the problems.

THE PRICE IS THE FIRST THING TO ARGUE ABOUT

At ₦525 a share, the whole company is valued at roughly 47 billion dollars.

Now hold that number next to two others.

The refinery cost somewhere around 19 to 20 billion dollars to build. Bloomberg still values it at about its construction cost when it calculates Aliko Dangote's net worth.

And in July 2026, the company sold about 6 per cent of itself in a private placement to institutions including the Africa Finance Corporation, raising 2.5 billion dollars. That deal valued the company at roughly 41.7 billion dollars.

So the IPO price sits above what large, sophisticated institutions paid eight weeks earlier, and more than double the build cost. The company would say the business is worth far more than the bricks, and that is fair. A plant that runs at over 90 per cent and earns dollars is worth more than the same plant sitting idle. But you are paying a premium, and you should know that going in.

For scale: at 47 billion dollars, this company would be valued near Marathon Petroleum in the United States, and above Valero. Both refine more oil than Dangote and have decades of published, audited results behind them.

THE PART EVERYONE IS EXCITED ABOUT: DOLLAR DIVIDENDS

The company has said it wants to pay dividends in US dollars, funded by export earnings. You would buy in naira on the NGX and get paid in dollars.

If that happens, it is a big deal for a Nigerian investor. It is a hedge against the naira built into the share.

But read this carefully. It has not been approved yet. It still needs sign-off from the SEC and the Federal Ministry of Finance. Until you see it confirmed in the final prospectus, treat it as a proposal, not a feature. Do not pay for it in advance.

NOW THE UNCOMFORTABLE PART

Here is what I would want any friend of mine to sit with before subscribing.

There are no public audited accounts. None. The widely repeated 23 per cent profit margin came from an anonymous source quoted in the financial press, not from an audited statement. Revenue estimates floating around range from 8 billion to 27 billion dollars a year, which tells you how much guessing is going on. The prospectus will be the first time anyone outside the company sees real numbers.

You would own a very small slice, and so would everyone else. The base offer is roughly 3.3 per cent of the company. Aliko Dangote would still hold about 89 per cent afterwards. A small free float means two things: your voice as a shareholder is close to zero, and the shares may not trade easily once listed.

The crude supply fight is not settled. The refinery's CEO said in March 2026 that the plant needs 13 to 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude a month but was receiving five. NNPC says it has allocated everything available and that the refinery's own scheduling is part of the issue. Other trade sources say producers offer more than Dangote takes. Whoever is right, the refinery has had to import a lot of foreign crude, and buying crude at world prices while selling some fuel in naira squeezes the margin.

It is in court, right now. Two active cases: one challenging fuel import licences given to NNPC and other marketers, and one against NMDPRA after the regulator tried to suspend loading at the plant in August 2026. A court granted an interim order stopping that. Hearings are set for 9 September and 7 October 2026.

Labour trouble has already shut it down once. In September 2025, a dispute with PENGASSAN over around 800 workers led to a three-day national strike that deferred roughly 283,000 barrels a day of crude and knocked out about a fifth of national power. It was settled, but the union warned it could resume without any warning.

Almost everyone in the fuel business is angry. Marketers and depot owners accuse the refinery of monopoly behaviour, especially since it started delivering fuel directly to filling stations with its own CNG truck fleet. NNPC itself argued in court that letting one company control the market creates supply and price risk for the country.

None of this means the business fails. It does mean the ride will be bumpy, and the bumps are already visible.

IF YOU WANT TO TAKE PART

You need two things: a CSCS account, and an account with an NGX-licensed stockbroker or a SEC-licensed platform. Complete your KYC and fund the account before the window opens, because these things close faster than people expect. If the offer is oversubscribed, allotment is usually pro-rata and unallotted money is refunded.

One warning worth repeating. In June 2026 the SEC ordered operators to stop collecting advance subscriptions. Do not send money to anyone who says they are reserving shares for you. There is no such thing until the prospectus is published and the official window opens.

WHAT TO ACTUALLY READ IN THE PROSPECTUS

When it drops, skip the glossy pages and look for five things. First, audited financials: real revenue, real profit, real cash flow, for at least two years. Second, total debt and when it matures. Third, related-party transactions with other Dangote companies, because that is where governance risk usually hides. Fourth, the confirmed free float and any lock-up periods. Fifth, the dollar dividend: approved, or still just proposed?

If the answers to those are thin, that tells you something.

A LITTLE HISTORY, FOR PERSPECTIVE

MTN Nigeria listed in May 2019 at ₦90. It ended that year up about 17 per cent, and was up nearly 89 per cent by the end of 2020. Then it fell hard through 2023 and 2024 before recovering. Anyone who bought expecting a smooth line upward got a lesson instead.

Big, exciting Nigerian listings can reward patient holders. They rarely reward people who bought because everyone else was buying.

WHERE THAT LEAVES YOU

If you do not want to wait, you already have Dangote exposure available on the NGX today through Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar and NASCON. Different businesses, same group, same management culture, and you can watch how they treat minority shareholders while you decide.

If you do want the refinery, the sensible approach is boring: get your CSCS account and broker sorted now, read the prospectus properly when it is published, size the position small enough that a rough first year will not hurt you, and ignore anyone promising you a guaranteed allotment.

The plant is real. The output is real. The price and the disclosure are the open questions.

This newsletter is for information only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All figures are as reported at 7 September 2026 and some remain unconfirmed by the company. Please read the official prospectus and speak to a licensed adviser before investing.

Main sources: Nigerian SEC approval letter (4 September 2026); Reuters via Daily Trust and CNBC Africa; US Energy Information Administration, "Dangote refinery drives increase in petroleum shipments from Nigeria" (25 August 2026); Billionaires.Africa; Vanguard; PUNCH; NMDPRA data.